Fiscal deficit
Figures below refer to 15 July 2026 unless stated otherwise.
The claim
The fiscal deficit narrowed sharply between 2023 and 2024 but is forecast to widen again in 2026.
Figures
The deficit narrowed from 5.4% to 3.0% of GDP — this is a 2023 to 2024 comparison from the World Bank, NOT a 2026 figure. CardinalStone's 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, published 15 July 2026, forecasts the deficit widening to ₦25.7tn, or 4.9% of GDP, in 2026.
The counter-argument
Quoting '5.4% to 3.0%' undated, in a list of current achievements, is a live credibility trap. If you use it, say which years it covers and acknowledge the 2026 forecast reverses direction.
Sources
- World Bank Nigeria Development Update, May 2025worldbank.org
- ThisDay — deficit forecast to widen to 4.9% of GDPthisdaylive.com