Evidence · Macroeconomy

Well evidenced

GDP growth

Figures below refer to 25 May 2026 unless stated otherwise.

The claim

Real GDP growth accelerated across the administration's term. Q2 2026 data had not been released as of 16 August 2026.

Figures

Q2 2023: 2.51%. Full year 2024: 3.38%. 2025 quarters: Q1 3.19%, Q2 4.23%, Q3 3.98%, Q4 4.07%. Full year 2025: 3.87%. Q1 2026: 3.89% (against 3.13% in Q1 2025). Q1 2026 composition: nominal GDP ₦110.79tn, real GDP ₦51.26tn, services 57.73%, agriculture 23.16%, industry 19.11%, non-oil 96.08% of GDP, crude output 1.55 mbpd. BusinessDay nowcast for Q2 2026 was 4.5%.

The counter-argument

Growth of around 4% against population growth of roughly 2.5% means per-capita gains are thin, and the World Bank found poverty still rising through 2025. Growth is real; it has not yet become household income.

Sources

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